Early computational detection of potential high-risk SARS-CoV-2 variants.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is leading to the discovery of hundreds of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants daily. While most variants do not impact the course of the pandemic, some variants pose an increased risk when the acquired mutations allow better evasion of antibody neutralisation or increased transmissibility. Early detection of such high-risk variants (HRVs) is paramount for the proper management of the pandemic. However, experimental assays to determine immune evasion and transmissibility characteristics of new variants are resource-intensive and time-consuming, potentially leading to delays in appropriate responses by decision makers. Presented herein is a novel in silico approach combining spike (S) protein structure modelling and large protein transformer language models on S protein sequences to accurately rank SARS-CoV-2 variants for immune escape and fitness potential. Both metrics were experimentally validated using in vitro pseudovirus-based neutralisation test and binding assays and were subsequently combined to explore the changing landscape of the pandemic and to create an automated Early Warning System (EWS) capable of evaluating new variants in minutes and risk-monitoring variant lineages in near real-time. The system accurately pinpoints the putatively dangerous variants by selecting on average less than 0.3% of the novel variants each week. The EWS flagged all 16 variants designated by the World Health Organization (WHO) as variants of interest (VOIs) if applicable or variants of concern (VOCs) otherwise with an average lead time of more than one and a half months ahead of their designation as such.

Early computational detection of potential high-risk SARS-CoV-2 variants

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is leading to the discovery of hundreds of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants daily. While most variants do not impact the course of the pandemic, some variants pose an increased risk when the acquired mutations allow better evasion of antibody neutralisation or increased transmissibility. Early detection of such high-risk variants (HRVs) is paramount for the proper management of the pandemic. However, experimental assays to determine immune evasion and transmissibility characteristics of new variants are resource-intensive and time-consuming, potentially leading to delays in appropriate responses by decision makers. Presented herein is a novel in silico approach combining spike (S) protein structure modelling and large protein transformer language models on S protein sequences to accurately rank SARS-CoV-2 variants for immune escape and fitness potential. Both metrics were experimentally validated using in vitro pseudovirus-based neutralisation test and binding assays and were subsequently combined to explore the changing landscape of the pandemic and to create an automated Early Warning System (EWS) capable of evaluating new variants in minutes and risk-monitoring variant lineages in near real-time. The system accurately pinpoints the putatively dangerous variants by selecting on average less than 0.3% of the novel variants each week. The EWS flagged all 16 variants designated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as variants of interest (VOIs) if applicable or variants of concern (VOCs) otherwise with an average lead time of more than one and a half months ahead of their designation as such.

Exposure to BA.4/5 S protein drives neutralization of Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4/5 in vaccine-experienced humans and mice.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and its sublineages show pronounced viral escape from neutralizing antibodies elicited by vaccination or prior SARS-CoV-2 variant infection owing to over 30 amino acid alterations within the spike (S) glycoprotein. Breakthrough infection of vaccinated individuals with Omicron sublineages BA.1 and BA.2 is associated with distinct patterns of cross-neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs). In continuation of our previous work, we characterized the effect of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 S glycoprotein exposure on the neutralizing antibody response upon breakthrough infection in vaccinated individuals and upon variant-adapted booster vaccination in mice. We found that immune sera from triple mRNA-vaccinated individuals with subsequent breakthrough infection during the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave showed cross-neutralizing activity against previous Omicron variants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4/BA.5 itself. Administration of a prototypic BA.4/BA.5-adapted mRNA booster vaccine to mice following SARS-CoV-2 wild-type strain-based primary immunization is associated with broader cross-neutralizing activity than a BA.1-adapted booster. While the Omicron BA-1-adapted mRNA vaccine in a bivalent format (wild-type + BA.1) broadens cross-neutralizing activity relative to the BA.1 monovalent booster, cross-neutralization of BA.2 and descendants is more effective in mice boosted with a bivalent wild-type + BA.4/BA.5 vaccine. In naïve mice primary immunization with the bivalent wild-type + Omicron BA.4/BA.5 vaccine induces strong cross-neutralizing activity against Omicron VOCs and previous variants. These findings suggest that when administered as boosters, mono- and bivalent Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted vaccines enhance neutralization breadth, and that the bivalent version also has the potential to confer protection to individuals with no pre-existing immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Omicron BA.2 breakthrough infection enhances cross-neutralization of BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5.

BNT162b2-vaccinated individuals after Omicron BA.1 breakthrough infection have strong serum-neutralizing activity against Omicron BA.1, BA.2, and previous SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) yet less against the highly contagious Omicron sublineages BA.4 and BA.5 that have displaced previous variants. Because the latter sublineages are derived from Omicron BA.2, we characterized serum-neutralizing activity of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine triple-immunized individuals who experienced BA.2 breakthrough infection. We demonstrate that sera of these individuals have broadly neutralizing activity against previous VOCs and all tested Omicron sublineages, including BA.2-derived variants BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5. Furthermore, applying antibody depletion, we showed that neutralization of BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5 sublineages by BA.2 convalescent sera is driven to a considerable extent by antibodies targeting the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the spike glycoprotein. However, neutralization by Omicron BA.1 convalescent sera depends exclusively on antibodies targeting the receptor binding domain (RBD). These findings suggest that exposure to Omicron BA.2, in contrast to BA.1 spike glycoprotein, triggers substantial NTD-specific recall responses in vaccinated individuals and thereby enhances the neutralization of BA.4/BA.5 sublineages. Given the current epidemiology with a predominance of BA.2-derived sublineages such as BA.4/BA.5 and rapidly ongoing evolution, these findings helped to inform development of our Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted vaccine.

Omicron BA.1 breakthrough infection drives cross-variant neutralization and memory B cell formation against conserved epitopes.

Omicron is the evolutionarily most distinct severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant of concern (VOC) to date. We report that Omicron BA.1 breakthrough infection in BNT162b2-vaccinated individuals resulted in strong neutralizing activity against Omicron BA.1, BA.2, and previous SARS-CoV-2 VOCs but not against the Omicron sublineages BA.4 and BA.5. BA.1 breakthrough infection induced a robust recall response, primarily expanding memory B (BMEM) cells against epitopes shared broadly among variants, rather than inducing BA.1-specific B cells. The vaccination-imprinted BMEM cell pool had sufficient plasticity to be remodeled by heterologous SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein exposure. Whereas selective amplification of BMEM cells recognizing shared epitopes allows for effective neutralization of most variants that evade previously established immunity, susceptibility to escape by variants that acquire alterations at hitherto conserved sites may be heightened.

Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron by BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine-elicited human sera.

The globally circulating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant of concern Omicron (B.1.1.529) has a large number of mutations, especially in the spike protein, indicating that recognition by neutralizing antibodies may be compromised. We tested Wuhan (Wuhan-Hu-1 reference strain), Beta (B.1.351), Delta (B.1.617.2), or Omicron pseudoviruses with sera of 51 participants who received two or three doses of the messenger RNA (mRNA)-based COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2. After two doses, Omicron-neutralizing titers were reduced >22-fold compared with Wuhan-neutralizing titers. One month after the third vaccine dose, Omicron-neutralizing titers were increased 23-fold relative to their levels after two doses and were similar to levels of Wuhan-neutralizing titers after two doses. The requirement of a third vaccine dose to effectively neutralize Omicron was confirmed with sera from a subset of participants using live SARS-CoV-2. These data suggest that three doses of the mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 may protect against Omicron-mediated COVID-19.